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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt AMB Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 12.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.9% | -4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Frozen Dismissal, Spirit of Water. Losers more often ran: Tidal Lock, Grand Crusader's Ring, Vaporjet Shield.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |